checker play #045

is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 128

9 point match

pip: 166 score: 6 is Player 1

XGID=---B-AD-B-a-cB-a-c-ebB-AA-:0:0:1:22:6:3:0:9:10

to play 22

Bijeli je 30 pipseva u zaostatku i ne želi smanjiti kontakt i krenuti naprijed, tako ne može dobiti ovu igru. Njegov plan je ojačati kuću, izbaciti jednog ili više protivničkih checkera i zatim pokrenuti stražnje checkere i otpusti kontakt. 6/4(2) je obavezni dio. Stražnje checkere ostavljamo gdje jesu kako crni ne bi mogao igrati iza ankore. Jedino što preostaje je 13/11(2). Neobično je napuštati 13.polje kada se ima čak 4 checkera pozadi, zato 23/21 zaostaje samo 0.015 u equity-ju. Slijedeći potez će bijeli vjerojatno zatvoriti 5.polje, a 11 ostavlja mu šut. 

White is 30 pips behind and should avoid race. His game plan is to make his homeboard stronger, hit one or more opponent's checkers and runs with his own back checkers. 6/4(2) is mandatory part. It makes new inner point which white need to contain black checker. White's back checkers are fine where they are to avoid possibility that black plays behind his anchor. 13/11(2) is unusual solution when white still has four checkers back and is pretty hard to find over the board. Maybe this is reason why 23/21 is only 0.015 worse in equity. Next roll, white will possibly make his 5pt and 11 leaves him a shot as a little bonus.

1.	Rollout1	13/11(2) 6/4(2)	eq: -0,791
	Player: Opponent: 34,20% (G:7,62% B:0,86%) 65,80% (G:16,07% B:0,57%) Conf: ± 0,006 (-0,797...-0,785) Duration: 3 hours 08 minutes
2.	Rollout1	23/21 8/4 6/4	eq: -0,806 (-0,015)
	Player: Opponent: 33,21% (G:7,23% B:0,71%) 66,79% (G:14,76% B:0,47%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,811...-0,801) Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes
3.	Rollout2	24/22 8/4 6/4	eq: -0,873 (-0,082)
	Player: Opponent: 33,21% (G:7,12% B:0,73%) 66,79% (G:17,36% B:0,63%) Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,881...-0,865) Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
4.	Rollout2	23/21 13/11(2) 6/4	eq: -0,912 (-0,121)
	Player: Opponent: 31,22% (G:6,22% B:0,64%) 68,78% (G:15,25% B:0,46%) Conf: ± 0,007 (-0,919...-0,905) Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
5.	Rollout2	23/21 13/11 6/4(2)	eq: -0,926 (-0,135)
	Player: Opponent: 34,23% (G:7,49% B:0,83%) 65,77% (G:21,52% B:0,90%) Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,934...-0,918) Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross