checker play #040

is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 58

9 point match

pip: 111 score: 1 is Player 1

XGID=-BBABCB------------cddBAd-:1:1:1:53:1:2:0:9:10

to play 53

Ako napusti ankoru bijeli zbog veće šanse za šut i većeg kontakta dobiva najviše igara 17%, ali i gubi najviše gammona 21%. Pobjegne li sa 23pt, otpušta kontakt i umanjuje svoje šanse za pobjedu na 8% i praktički ulazi u damage control mode, te izbjegava gammon (preostalo ih je samo 8.5%). Odabere li 22/14, za 9% više pobjeda bijeli gubi "samo" 13.1% novih gammona. Da je taj broj 18% ili veći, onda bi se isplatilo zadržati ankoru. Upravo tih nedostajućih 4.9% čine "riskantni" 22/14, boljim izborom.

If white leaves anchor he increases contact, get more chances for shot and wins most plain games, 17%, but loses most gammons, 21%. If he runs from 23pt, he releases contact, decrease his chances for wins to 8% and practically enter into damage control mode and avoid gammon (only 8.5%). If he chooses 22/14, he gets 9% more wins but loses only 13.1% new gammons. If that number is 18% or higher, then he should keep anchor, otherwise those missed 4.9% gammons turns "riskier" 22/14 into better choice.

1.	Rollout1	22/14	eq: -0,818
	Player: Opponent: 17,03% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 82,97% (G:21,61% B:0,33%) Conf: ± 0,006 (-0,824...-0,812) Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/15	eq: -0,898 (-0,080)
	Player: Opponent: 7,97% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 92,03% (G:8,47% B:0,08%) Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,902...-0,894) Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross