checker play #013

is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 114

7 point match

pip: 83 score: 2 is Player 1

XGID=-aBCBbCBB-----A---abbbcb--:1:-1:1:32:2:2:0:7:10

to play 32

Bijeli vodi 32 pipsa i želi dovesti checker sa 14pt što sigurnije kući. Najmanje šuteva (6) ostavlja nakon 14/12. Ne sviđa mu se dislociranje spare checkera sa 6pt na niži 3pt, ali s tolikom prednosti ne zamara se tim 'sitnicama'. Uostalom, crni ima prejak board da bi bilo što drugo bilo prihvatljivo. U pozicijama kada se posljednji back checker treba dovesti kući, onda su gotovo uvijek najbolji potezi oni koji ga i dovode bliže kući. Jednostavno. Sa 12pt, ako preživi, a favorit je za to ~89%, sve 4, 5 i 6 spremaju ga na sigurno.

White is 32 pips ahead and he wants to bring checker from 14pt to home with less troubles as he can. Minimum shots leaves after 14/12, six of them. He doesn't like displacing spare from 6pt to lower 3pt but with such racing advantage he doesn't mind. Anyway, black board is too strong so anything else is just not acceptable. In positions like this one when last back checker should find his way to home safely, almost always the best moves are those which brings him closer to home. Simple. If survives next roll at 12pt, and he is favorite for that ~89%, all 4s, 5s and 6s will put him on safety.

1.	Rollout1	14/12 6/3	eq: +0,468
	Player: Opponent: 74,43% (G:8,81% B:0,23%) 25,57% (G:3,12% B:0,08%) Conf: ± 0,007 (+0,461...+0,475) Duration: 2 minutes 28 seconds
2.	Rollout1	14/9	eq: +0,296 (-0,171)
	Player: Opponent: 68,82% (G:11,32% B:0,30%) 31,18% (G:3,82% B:0,15%) Conf: ± 0,011 (+0,285...+0,307) Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
3.	Rollout1	4/1* 3/1	eq: +0,192 (-0,276)
	Player: Opponent: 65,64% (G:9,10% B:0,07%) 34,36% (G:12,53% B:0,40%) Conf: ± 0,007 (+0,185...+0,199) Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
4.	Rollout1	6/1*	eq: +0,190 (-0,278)
	Player: Opponent: 65,87% (G:10,42% B:0,23%) 34,13% (G:11,19% B:0,50%) Conf: ± 0,011 (+0,179...+0,201) Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
5.	Rollout1	14/11 3/1*	eq: +0,131 (-0,337)
	Player: Opponent: 63,89% (G:10,04% B:0,24%) 36,11% (G:11,24% B:0,44%) Conf: ± 0,012 (+0,119...+0,143) Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross