Tuesday, March 8, 2011

checker play #009


is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 84
7 point match
pip: 120
score: 6

is Player 1
XGID=---B-CDaA----D-Aa-bbcbb-b-:1:1:1:52:6:4:0:7:10
to play 52

Trka je izgubljena stoga bijeli treba hit. Pet šuteva je izgleda premalo da se prestraši protivnikove vrlo jake kuće, dvostrukog gammona koji znači meč, te odigra sigurno 15/8 i smanji kontakt. Što ako crni baci 52 ili 43? Checkerom sa 15pt se može zatvoriti novo polje ispred crnog i dodatno ga blokirati. Ako želi zadržati protivnikov checker nakon što ga smjesti na bar, bijeli treba zatvoriti 4pt. Najbrži način za to je započeti ga. Da protivniku nedostaju točno 4 poena, gammoni bi bili vrijedniji, a siguran potez privlačniji.

Race is lost so white needs hit. It seems how five shots are not enough to be scared with opponent's strong board and double gammons, so safe 15/8 which release contact is not appropriate. What if black rolls 52 or 43? With checker on 15pt white can make new point in front of black and can create him new bad rolls. After hit white needs to containt black's checker and he can't do that without 4pt. The best way to make point is to start it. Safe play would be more attractive at scores when black needs exactly four points. Then his gammons would be more valuable.

1.Rollout113/8 6/4eq: -0,644
Player:
Opponent:		28,15% (G:2,12% B:0,04%)
71,85% (G:10,34% B:0,29%)		Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,648...-0,640)
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 5/3eq: -0,681 (-0,037)
Player:
Opponent:		25,19% (G:1,51% B:0,05%)
74,81% (G:9,24% B:0,27%)		Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,685...-0,677)
Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout115/8eq: -0,698 (-0,054)
Player:
Opponent:		16,65% (G:0,90% B:0,01%)
83,35% (G:1,54% B:0,04%)		Conf: ± 0,002 (-0,700...-0,696)
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout115/13 8/3eq: -0,787 (-0,144)
Player:
Opponent:		11,85% (G:0,55% B:0,01%)
88,15% (G:1,22% B:0,05%)		Conf: ± 0,002 (-0,789...-0,785)
Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds
5.Rollout18/3 5/3eq: -0,847 (-0,203)
Player:
Opponent:		18,17% (G:0,92% B:0,04%)
81,83% (G:10,52% B:0,28%)		Conf: ± 0,003 (-0,850...-0,844)
Duration: 2 minutes 50 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross 
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousMarch 12, 2011 at 1:16 PM

    rizik za gubitak gammona (cijelog meca) je previsok. rizik se ne isplati (neovisno o zaostatku u trci) tako da je najsigurnije ipak odigrati sigurno: 15/13/8
    po gnuu sve osim toga je velika greska

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousMarch 12, 2011 at 1:22 PM

    dodatak: da je rezultat drugaciji, da crnog dijeli samo ova igra od ukupne pobjede u mecu, tj. da bijeli nema 'prostora' za izgubiti ovu igru (npr. bijeli ima prednost 6-4 u 7 pt mecu) onda je najbolji potez: 15/8 6/4

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