checker play #035

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 116

9 point match

pip: 117 score: 1 is Player 1

XGID=-AA--BDBCb-------ccdcB----:0:0:1:65:1:1:0:9:10

to play 65

Bijeli vodi 10 pipseva, ali ne smije napustiti ankoru. Najbolji potez koji razbija ankoru je da s oba checkera preskoči blokadu i ostavi šestice i sedmice crnom (ukupno 22 šuta), što je blunder od 0.111. Ostali potezi gdje se ankora napušta s jednim checkerom predaju protivniku 10-15% šansi za pobjedu. Crni neće ostaviti šut slijedeće bacanje, ma kako board bijeloga bio slab, osim možda indirekt 66, stoga 8/3 započinje novo polje, a 8/2 zatvara 2pt što je bolje za trku nego 1pt. Sada će bijeli vjerojatno imati barem pet polja snažan board ako dođe do izmjene udaraca. 

White is 10 pips ahead but can't leave anchor. Best move which breaks anchor is a jump with both checkers over blockade. It leaves 6s and 7s, total 22 shots. Enough for 0.111 blunder according RO. Other moves which abandons anchor with one checker only concedes 10-15% winning chances. Black will not leave shot next turn, except 66 indirect, perhaps, so proper technique is following: 8/3 starts new inner point and 8/2 cover 2pt which is better than acept for race. After this white probably can expect five points strong board in most circumstances.

1.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: -0,410
	Player: Opponent: 40,08% (G:3,74% B:0,07%) 59,92% (G:5,78% B:0,27%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,415...-0,405) Duration: 29 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3 7/1	eq: -0,413 (-0,003)
	Player: Opponent: 40,02% (G:3,75% B:0,07%) 59,98% (G:5,67% B:0,25%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,418...-0,408) Duration: 28 minutes 08 seconds
3.	Rollout2	8/2 6/1	eq: -0,434 (-0,024)
	Player: Opponent: 39,43% (G:3,13% B:0,04%) 60,57% (G:5,78% B:0,20%) Conf: ± 0,007 (-0,441...-0,427) Duration: 13 minutes 31 seconds
4.	Rollout2	7/2 7/1	eq: -0,451 (-0,041)
	Player: Opponent: 39,00% (G:3,23% B:0,05%) 61,00% (G:6,18% B:0,21%) Conf: ± 0,007 (-0,458...-0,444) Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds
5.	Rollout2	8/2 7/2	eq: -0,470 (-0,061)
	Player: Opponent: 38,70% (G:3,10% B:0,05%) 61,30% (G:6,24% B:0,24%) Conf: ± 0,007 (-0,477...-0,463) Duration: 10 minutes 26 seconds
6.	Rollout2	7/1 6/1	eq: -0,477 (-0,067)
	Player: Opponent: 38,45% (G:2,66% B:0,05%) 61,55% (G:5,92% B:0,26%) Conf: ± 0,007 (-0,484...-0,470) Duration: 12 minutes 30 seconds
7.	Rollout2	21/16 21/15	eq: -0,521 (-0,111)
	Player: Opponent: 36,45% (G:1,99% B:0,12%) 63,55% (G:11,64% B:0,39%) Conf: ± 0,009 (-0,530...-0,512) Duration: 20 minutes 34 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross