 is Player 2score: 4 pip: 154 |
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7 point match | ||||||||||||||
| pip: 163 score: 3  is Player 1
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| to play 61
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Bijeli zaostaje u trci, ima snažniju kuću, te ankoru za razliku od crnog. Magrielov bold vs safe kriterij sugerira aktivniji potez dok stanje u trci upućuje na to da se ne ide naprijed sa 24/18 nego da se povećava kontakt. 13/7 ulazi u double shot i zadovoljava oba principa, a kao bonus rasterećuje midpoint. Što se jedinice tiče, ne želimo razbiti postojeće polje (8pt) kako bi napravili novo (7pt) koje gubi značaj nakon 24/21 crnog, niti razdvojiti back checkere ispred protivnikovih stackova. 6/5 daje i pokoji uzvrat s bara.
White is behind in race and has stronger board and anchor. Black has no anchor at all. Magriel's bold vs safe criteria suggests more active play. Race suggests not to go forward with 24/18 but to increase contact somehow. 13/7 comes into double shot and satisfy both principles and as a bonus it unstacks midpoint. We don't want to break 8pt in order to make barpt which loses his importance after black split his back checkers nor we don't want to split our back checkers in front of opponents stacks. 6/5 gives us few more returns from the bar.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/5 | eq: +0,357 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0,305 (-0,052) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/6 | eq: +0,295 (-0,062) | |||
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| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/18 6/5 | eq: +0,292 (-0,065) | |||
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| 5. | Rollout3 | 24/23 13/7 | eq: +0,243 (-0,114) | |||
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| 1 11366 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 11365 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 3 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Your reasoning here makes sense but I think that the most important factor here is score actually. White is 4-away and he is looking for gammonish positions where his future cube turn could mean winning the match very efficiently.
ReplyDeleteOne has to be careful when volunteering the double shot so early in the game, especially when there are safer alternatives. Sometimes it is correct but more often it's wrong and when it's wrong it's usually wrong by a large margin. So for money and at most scores my preference would be safe and simple 24/18 6/5.
The main reason why leaving the double shot is so much better than the alternatives at this particular score is that it wins few percent more gammons and allows white to give the more efficient cube in the future. (should the dice gods allow it, of course)
ne podrzavam prijedlog.
ReplyDeletebijeli nakon odigranog poteza u trci zaostaje samo 2 pipsa sto je beznacajno. izlagati se riziku s dva lagana hita na pointu 7 je nepotrebno.
odigrati 24/18 6/5 je nejbolje u ovoj igri pri ovom rezultatu. tek ostaje za vidjeti hoce li crni uspjeti napraviti ankoru, odnosno hoce li hitnuti bijelog na pointu 18. bijelom to mozda bas i odgovara.
(m)
XGID=-a--aBD-B---cE---e-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
ReplyDeleteScore is X:0 O:0. Money session
1. Rollout 24/18 6/5 eq:+0,142
Player : 53,81% (G:13,35% B:0,66%)
Opponent: 46,19% (G:12,71% B:0,43%)
Confidence: ± 0,006 (+0,136<E<+0,148)
2. Rollout 13/7 6/5 eq:+0,139 (-0,003)
Player : 52,76% (G:16,74% B:0,70%)
Opponent: 47,24% (G:12,84% B:0,76%)
Confidence: ± 0,008 (+0,131<E<+0,147)
13017 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21