checker play #064

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 227

9 point match

pip: 99 score: 6 is Player 1

XGID=-dcBBBD-C--Ab---Aa-cb-----:0:0:1:21:6:1:0:9:10

to play 21

Prva 3 kandidata sadrže 8/7. Zbog čega? Da li bijeli želi 7.polje ili želi biti izbačen na bar kako bi popravio timing? Čini se ako nitko ne baci velike duple da će crni vjerojatno složiti blokadu od 4 polja, bijeli ubaciti checkere u kuću dok će crni prije ili kasnije baciti 5 ili 6 kako bi održao svoju frontalnu poziciju zajedno sa ankorama pozadi. Zbog toga je 8/7 win-win pozicija bijelom. Završi li na baru, popravlja timing i izbjegava klopku. Umakne li udarcu, favorit je za složiti blokadu kojom će razdvojiti crnog na dva dijela i prisiliti ga da razbije prednju poziciju.

First three moves consist 8/7 as a part. Why? Does white want 7pt or he wants to be on the bar in order to improve his timing? If nobody rolls big doubles real scenario could be: black makes four prime, white bearin all checkers but black escape with 5 or 6 to keep his front position and both anchors in same time. Because those reasons 8/7 looks like win-win position for white. If black hits him, white improves his timing and avoids trap. Otherwise he is favorite to make full prime which will break black's army in two pieces and force him to crunch his front position.

1.	Rollout1	8/7 6/4	eq: +0,584
	Player: Opponent: 61,10% (G:40,12% B:18,63%) 38,90% (G:2,23% B:0,12%) Conf: ± 0,016 (+0,568...+0,600) Duration: 5 hours 07 minutes
2.	Rollout1	16/14 8/7	eq: +0,581 (-0,004)
	Player: Opponent: 61,27% (G:40,10% B:17,84%) 38,73% (G:2,29% B:0,11%) Conf: ± 0,015 (+0,566...+0,596) Duration: 5 hours 03 minutes
3.	Rollout2	11/9 8/7	eq: +0,580 (-0,004)
	Player: Opponent: 61,15% (G:39,86% B:17,52%) 38,85% (G:2,23% B:0,12%) Conf: ± 0,015 (+0,565...+0,595) Duration: 4 hours 35 minutes
4.	Rollout2	16/15 6/4	eq: +0,560 (-0,024)
	Player: Opponent: 59,42% (G:38,85% B:18,58%) 40,58% (G:1,17% B:0,05%) Conf: ± 0,016 (+0,544...+0,576) Duration: 5 hours 00 minute
5.	Rollout2	16/13	eq: +0,559 (-0,025)
	Player: Opponent: 59,43% (G:38,69% B:18,47%) 40,57% (G:0,88% B:0,04%) Conf: ± 0,015 (+0,544...+0,574) Duration: 4 hours 45 minutes
6.	Rollout2	11/9 6/5	eq: +0,534 (-0,050)
	Player: Opponent: 58,89% (G:38,26% B:18,05%) 41,11% (G:1,04% B:0,05%) Conf: ± 0,015 (+0,519...+0,549) Duration: 4 hours 36 minutes
1 10369 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross